Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-135/+133).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -3-point underdog in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
Jonathan Taylor's 14.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in football: 76th percentile for RBs.
This year, the deficient Steelers defense has been gouged for a colossal 0.25 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing RBs: the 6th-worst rate in the league.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Pittsburgh's group of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in football.

Favors Under

The model projects the Colts to be the 6th-most run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: fewest in football.
Among all running backs, Jonathan Taylor ranks in the 95th percentile for red zone carries this year, comprising 72.7% of the workload in his offense's ground game near the end zone.
Jonathan Taylor has accrued a paltry -5.0 air yards per game this year: just 20th percentile when it comes to RBs.

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