Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 6:27 AM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-239/+181).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +181.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are expected by the model to run 65.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week.
Jonathan Taylor's 15.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 84th percentile for RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all air attack stats across the board.
Jonathan Taylor ranks in the 76th percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 0.09 per game.
Since the start of last season, the weak Commanders defense has surrendered a massive 0.20 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing running backs: the 10th-highest rate in the league.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Colts being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to pass on 54.0% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Colts to be the 8th-most run-oriented team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 46.7% red zone run rate.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 55.2 plays per game.
Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats reduced) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier weather in this game.