Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 1:12 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-138/+122).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Colts to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jonathan Taylor's 15.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 83rd percentile for RBs.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Colts profiles as the best in football since the start of last season.
Jonathan Taylor ranks in the 76th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.09 per game.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Houston's group of DEs has been terrific since the start of last season, projecting as the 5th-best in the league.

Favors Under

Right now, the 3rd-most run-centric offense in the league near the goal line (48.0% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Indianapolis Colts.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Texans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.3 per game) since the start of last season.
Jonathan Taylor has been given 90.9% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Jonathan Taylor has compiled a meager -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 16th percentile among RBs.