Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 12:52 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-147/+141).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3-point underdog this week.
The projections expect the Colts as the 8th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
With regard to a defense's effect on pace, the Colts defense has allowed the opposing side to play 10th-quickest in football (context-neutralized) last year at 28.48 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Ravens defense has been something of pass funnel last year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.2 per game) last year.

Favors Under

Right now, the 2nd-most run-focused offense in football near the goal line (49.2% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Indianapolis Colts.
Jonathan Taylor has earned 73.3% of his offense's red zone carries last year, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Jonathan Taylor has compiled a paltry -3.0 air yards per game last year: a lowly 9th percentile when it comes to running backs.
With a stellar rate of 0.90 rushing TDs per game (100th percentile), Jonathan Taylor places among the best rushing touchdown-scorers in football last year.
Opposing squads have run for the 10th-most TDs in the league (1.06 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense last year.

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