Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 12:58 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (-102/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 80.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 81.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 9th-most run-focused offense in football (41.2% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Indianapolis Colts.
The predictive model expects the Colts to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The model projects Jonathan Taylor to notch 22.1 carries in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Jonathan Taylor has garnered 82.7% of his team's rushing play calls this year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Jonathan Taylor has picked up 83.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (98th percentile).

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.6 plays per game.
Since the start of last season, the porous Texans run defense has been gouged for a monstrous 3.73 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 31st-highest rate in the NFL.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Houston's group of DEs has been terrific since the start of last season, projecting as the 5th-best in the league.

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