Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 79.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 87.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 79.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
In this game, Jonathan Taylor is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 97th percentile among running backs with 19.7 carries.
Jonathan Taylor has garnered 82.5% of his offense's rush attempts since the start of last season, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
With a stellar tally of 82.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (99th percentile), Jonathan Taylor rates as one of the best pure runners in football since the start of last season.
With a fantastic rate of 5.04 adjusted yards per carry (84th percentile), Jonathan Taylor stands as one of the best running backs in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Colts, who are -6-point underdogs.
The model projects the Colts as the 10th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.6% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to run 64.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.
The Colts have run the 8th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.3 plays per game.
Since the start of last season, the feeble Kansas City Chiefs run defense has allowed a whopping 4.07 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's run game: the 28th-biggest rate in the league.