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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 79.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 79.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 79.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Colts as the 4th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially increased (and running stats reduced) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some correction with windier conditions in this game.

In this game, Jonathan Taylor is anticipated by the model to position himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 19.6 rush attempts.

Jonathan Taylor has received 58.2% of his team's rushing play calls since the start of last season, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.

Jonathan Taylor has generated 73.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (97th percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their usual approach.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have only 126.5 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.

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