Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:21 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 59.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive blueprint to tilt 1.6% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
Right now, the 6th-most run-centric team in the league (42.2% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Indianapolis Colts.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).
The predictive model expects Jonathan Taylor to earn 14.8 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Favors Under

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
Jonathan Taylor's running efficiency has diminished this year, averaging a measly 3.46 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.53 rate last year.
This year, the imposing Saints run defense has conceded a feeble 96.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 10th-best in the league.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, New Orleans's LB corps has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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