Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Colts as the 4th-most run-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 43.6% run rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to see 129.4 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
With an outstanding total of 79.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (98th percentile), Jonathan Taylor places among the top pure runners in the league last year.

Favors Under

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
While Jonathan Taylor has received 67.6% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played last year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Indianapolis's ground game in this week's contest at 41.6%.
Since the start of last season, the anemic Tennessee Titans run defense has surrendered a colossal 3.41 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 32nd-highest rate in the NFL.
The Titans safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

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