Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 77.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 79.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 77.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Colts to be the 7th-most run-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.8% run rate.
The projections expect the Colts to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
The model projects Jonathan Taylor to garner 21.0 carries this week, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
Jonathan Taylor's 53.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year indicates a material diminishment in his running proficiency over last year's 79.0 mark.
Jonathan Taylor's ground efficiency has worsened this year, compiling a measly 3.76 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.53 rate last year.
Opposing teams have run for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 95.0 per game) versus the Buccaneers defense this year.

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