Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-146/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +113 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Jonathan Taylor has garnered 91.7% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 0.95 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (99th percentile).
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-least TDs in the league (0.75 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season.
The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 5th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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