Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-183/+134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-most run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 44.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jonathan Taylor has earned 87.0% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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