Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Rushing TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+112/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +129 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 140.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to be much more involved in his offense's run game near the end zone this week (88.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (73.7% in games he has played).
Jonathan Taylor has run for 0.44 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (85th percentile).
The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles grade out as the 5th-worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Colts are a massive 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Opposing squads have run for the 4th-least TDs in the league (0.55 per game) versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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