Jonathan Taylor Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 2, 2026 9:07 AM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-149/+117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are expected by the model to run 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
With a high 66.7% Route Participation% (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor ranks as one of the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads in football.
In this game, Jonathan Taylor is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 84th percentile among RBs with 3.4 targets.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all air attack stats across the board.
Jonathan Taylor grades out as one of the top pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 2.4 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Colts being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to pass on 54.1% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 55.2 plays per game.
Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats reduced) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier weather in this game.
Jonathan Taylor's 80.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year marks a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 84.9% mark.