Jonathan Taylor Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 12:58 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -155 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Colts to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
With an exceptional 66.8% Route Participation% (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor has been among the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads in football.
In this game, Jonathan Taylor is anticipated by the projections to place in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.0 targets.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Colts profiles as the best in football since the start of last season.
Jonathan Taylor rates as one of the best pass-catching RBs since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 2.4 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

Right now, the 9th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (58.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Indianapolis Colts.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Texans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.3 per game) since the start of last season.
The Texans pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (78.9%) versus RBs since the start of last season (78.9%).