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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions

Jonathan Taylor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Colts, who are giant -7-point underdogs.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

Jonathan Taylor's 58.8% Route% this season reflects a material gain in his pass game volume over last season's 47.1% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 54.3 per game on average).

Jonathan Taylor's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 77.7% to 58.9%.

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been very good this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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