Jonathan Taylor Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-106/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +138 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Colts to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
The leading projections forecast Jonathan Taylor to notch 4.1 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.2% pass rate.
Jonathan Taylor has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (49.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (64.8%).

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