Jonathan Taylor Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.
Jonathan Taylor has been used more as a potential target this season (63.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (49.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to accrue 3.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Jonathan Taylor's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 82.5% to 66.3%.
The Tennessee Titans defensive tackles rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.