Jonathan Taylor Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Jonathan Taylor has run a route on 51.1% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to accrue 3.8 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Jonathan Taylor has been among the leading running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 2.4 receptions per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties profile as the 9th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season with their pass rush.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
Jonathan Taylor's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 82.4% to 64.3%.