Jonathan Taylor Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+159/-224).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -166 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -224.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 60.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Jonathan Taylor's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 82.5% to 77.1%.
The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers grade out as the 8th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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