Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-104/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -3-point underdog in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
This week, Jonathan Taylor is projected by the projections to slot into the 81st percentile among running backs with 3.3 targets.
Jonathan Taylor's skills in picking up extra yardage have been refined this season, compiling 7.90 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 0.00 mark last season.
This year, the poor Steelers defense has yielded the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a whopping 9.24 YAC.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: fewest in football.
Jonathan Taylor's 56.8% Route Participation% this season signifies a noteable diminishment in his passing offense workload over last season's 68.2% figure.
Jonathan Taylor has accrued a paltry -5.0 air yards per game this year: just 20th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Jonathan Taylor's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 84.9% to 74.4%.

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