Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 1:12 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-108/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Colts to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
With an exceptional 66.8% Route Participation% (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor has been among the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads in football.
In this game, Jonathan Taylor is anticipated by the projections to place in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs with 4.0 targets.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Colts profiles as the best in football since the start of last season.
Jonathan Taylor grades out as one of the leading running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 19.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

Right now, the 9th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (58.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Indianapolis Colts.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Texans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.3 per game) since the start of last season.
Jonathan Taylor has compiled a meager -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 16th percentile among RBs.
The Texans pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against running backs since the start of last season, yielding 5.48 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in football.