Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-104/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Colts, who are -6-point underdogs.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Colts to pass on 0.0% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Jonathan Taylor has run a route on 67.8% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
The model projects Jonathan Taylor to garner 3.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to run 64.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.
The Colts have run the 8th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.3 plays per game.
The Colts have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.1 per game) since the start of last season.
As it relates to air yards, Jonathan Taylor ranks in the lowly 10th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, with just -3.0 per game.