Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 12:42 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-104/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3-point underdog this week.
The projections expect the Colts as the 8th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
With regard to a defense's effect on pace, the Colts defense has allowed the opposing side to play 10th-quickest in football (context-neutralized) last year at 28.48 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Ravens defense has been something of pass funnel last year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.2 per game) last year.

Favors Under

Jonathan Taylor has compiled a paltry -3.0 air yards per game last year: a lowly 9th percentile when it comes to running backs.
With a lackluster 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (3rd percentile) last year, Jonathan Taylor has been among the leading running backs in the pass game in football in the open field.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Baltimore's safety corps has been excellent last year, grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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