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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs this week, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual game plan.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

In regards to air yards, Jonathan Taylor ranks in the towering 75th percentile among running backs this year, totaling a superb 0.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to pass on 53.5% of their plays: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Colts this year (a mere 53.7 per game on average).

Jonathan Taylor has been much more involved in his team's offense this year, playing on 75.8% of snaps compared to just 55.6% last year.

Jonathan Taylor's 62.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this season reflects a meaningful drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 77.7% figure.

This year, the tough Houston Texans defense has allowed a meager 23.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 4th-fewest in football.

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