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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.2 plays on offense run: the 5th-most among all games this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

With an extraordinary 50.2% Route% (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor stands among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume in football.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.

Jonathan Taylor's pass-catching efficiency has been refined this season, averaging 8.17 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 6.34 mark last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to pass on 52.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense since the start of last season: 7th-fewest in the NFL.

Jonathan Taylor's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 77.7% to 42.6%.

Since the start of last season, the stout Steelers defense has conceded a mere 79.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 8th-lowest rate in the league.

When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's unit has been outstanding since the start of last season, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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