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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their usual approach.

With an impressive 49.7% Route% (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor stands among the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in the league.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season.

With an excellent 15.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (75th percentile) last year, Jonathan Taylor rates among the leading RB receiving threats in football.

Jonathan Taylor rates as one of the leading running backs in football at grinding out extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a stellar 9.16 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while grading out in the 77th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 51.3% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have only 126.5 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially increased (and running stats reduced) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some correction with windier conditions in this game.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Green Bay Packers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.8 per game) last year.

The Packers defense has yielded the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 26.0) to running backs last year.

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