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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Colts, who are giant -7-point underdogs.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

Jonathan Taylor's 58.8% Route% this season reflects a material gain in his pass game volume over last season's 47.1% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 54.3 per game on average).

When talking about air yards, Jonathan Taylor grades out in the measly 11th percentile among RBs this year, averaging just -4.0 per game.

Jonathan Taylor's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 77.7% to 58.9%.

Jonathan Taylor's 5.1 adjusted yards per target this year marks a material reduction in his pass-catching skills over last year's 6.3 figure.

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