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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

Jonathan Taylor has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (57.9% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (47.1%).

Our trusted projections expect Jonathan Taylor to earn 3.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in football (55.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Indianapolis Colts.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Colts are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 61.2 total plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The Colts have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.2 plays per game.

Jonathan Taylor has compiled a puny -4.0 air yards per game this year: just 12th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Jonathan Taylor's 62.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a noteable regression in his receiving skills over last season's 77.7% mark.

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