Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling with backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Colts have been the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 64.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 64.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Jonathan Taylor has posted a paltry -4.0 air yards per game this year: just 6th percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Jonathan Taylor's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this season, averaging just 3.42 yards-per-target compared to a 6.12 mark last season.
Jonathan Taylor's talent in grinding out extra yardage have worsened this year, compiling a measly 6.19 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 9.60 rate last year.

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