Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Jonathan Taylor has been more involved as a potential target this season (61.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (49.9%).
Jonathan Taylor has been among the best pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 17.0 yards per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has allowed their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Jonathan Taylor has totaled a puny -3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 2nd percentile among RBs.