Jonathan Taylor Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-117/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
In this game, Jonathan Taylor is predicted by the projection model to rank in the 97th percentile among running backs with 19.7 carries.
Jonathan Taylor has garnered 82.5% of his offense's rush attempts since the start of last season, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Colts, who are -6-point underdogs.
The model projects the Colts as the 10th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.6% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to run 64.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.
The Colts have run the 8th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.3 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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