Jonathan Taylor Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Carries

Indianapolis Colts vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects the Colts to be the 7th-most run-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.8% run rate.
The projections expect the Colts to call the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
The model projects Jonathan Taylor to garner 21.0 carries this week, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.

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