Jonathan Taylor Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 2:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to notch 22.6 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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