Jonathan Taylor Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Carries

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a big 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Colts rank as the 7th-most run-oriented team in football (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 40.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to notch 19.7 carries in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Jonathan Taylor has been given 75.8% of his team's rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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