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Jonathan Mingo Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+145).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +155 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +145.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -4-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Carolina Panthers since the start of last season (a staggering 59.8 per game on average).The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.The Raiders pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.4%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (68.4%).As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Las Vegas's LB corps has been awful since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Right now, the 4th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (54.9% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Panthers.The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.While Jonathan Mingo has received 18.3% of his team's targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the leading projections forecast him to be much less involved in Carolina's passing attack in this game at 11.4%.The Panthers O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.With a feeble 48.7% Adjusted Completion% (1st percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Mingo places among the most unreliable receivers in the league among wide receivers.
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