Jonathan Mingo Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Mingo

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Mingo Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+118/-163).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -163.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Mingo to be a much smaller part of his team's pass attack this week (16.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (21.7% in games he has played).
Jonathan Mingo has been among the worst possession receivers in the league, completing a measly 37.2% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 5th percentile among wide receivers
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (64.6%) versus wide receivers since the start of last season (64.6%).