Jonathan Mingo Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jonathan Mingo

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Mingo

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Mingo Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.0 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.
The Panthers have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.
Jonathan Mingo has run a route on 92.9% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
Jonathan Mingo is positioned as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league, catching a measly 56.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 12th percentile among wideouts
Jonathan Mingo grades out as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a lowly 5.42 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 8th percentile among wide receivers

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