John Wolford TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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John Wolford

NFL · Player Props

John Wolford

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

John Wolford TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+209/-286).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -278 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +209.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling with backup quarterback John Wolford in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Rams are a big 7-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 10th-most pass-centric offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.8% red zone pass rate.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has conceded the 6th-most passing TDs in football: 1.64 per game this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 4th-worst paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the 6th-best group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Los Angeles Rams have incorporated play action on a mere 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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