John Bates Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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John Bates

NFL · Player Props

John Bates

TE · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

John Bates Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1457/-2043).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2581 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2043.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is indicated by the Commanders being a -4-point underdog in this game.
The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.3% pass rate.
The 10th-most plays in the league have been called by the Commanders this year (a colossal 59.0 per game on average).
John Bates's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 79.5% to 84.5%.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in run defense, Los Angeles's LB corps has been very good this year, projecting as the 7th-best in football.

Favors Under

John Bates has accrued a measly 1.0 air yards per game this year: just 15th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The receiving touchdown field reads "0" on the back of John Bates's trading card this year.
This year, the formidable Rams defense has given up a paltry 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 3rd-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.12 per game this year.

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