John Bates Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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John Bates

NFL · Player Props

John Bates

TE · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 19, 2026 2:37 PM EST

Analysis

John Bates Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1567/-1900).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are big underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
The 8th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Commanders this year (a monstrous 60.6 per game on average).
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (37.4 per game) this year.
This year, the strong 49ers run defense has conceded a puny 0.60 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 5th-best rate in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the league this year with their run defense.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see only 124.5 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
John Bates ranks in the 23rd percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.07 per game.
The 49ers defense has allowed the fewest TDs through the air in football to TEs: 0.00 per game this year.

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