John Bates Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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John Bates

NFL · Player Props

John Bates

TE · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 12:47 PM EST

Analysis

John Bates Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1329/-1567).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-most plays in the league have been called by the Commanders this year (a monstrous 61.8 per game on average).
The Giants pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.4%) vs. tight ends this year (79.4%).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 6th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.50 per game) versus the New York Giants defense this year.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Commanders are favored in this game, indicating more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 51.0% of their downs: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 123.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects John Bates to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing attack near the end zone in this contest (4.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played).

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