John Bates Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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John Bates

NFL · Player Props

John Bates

TE · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

John Bates Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1567/-1718).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Commanders are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
At the present time, the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Commanders.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
The Colts linebackers project as the worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (58.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
While John Bates has garnered 11.8% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Washington's passing offense near the goal line in this contest at 4.7%.

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