John Bates Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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John Bates

NFL · Player Props

John Bates

TE · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

John Bates Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects John Bates to notch 3.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
The Washington Commanders O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
John Bates's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 86.8% to 71.4%.
The Chicago Bears safeties grade out as the 6th-best safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

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