John Bates Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

John Bates

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

John Bates Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Commanders are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
At the present time, the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Commanders.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
John Bates has been a less important option in his team's offense this season, staying on the field for just 32.4% of snaps compared to 48.9% last season.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (58.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
With a poor 10.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (22nd percentile) since the start of last season, John Bates places among the worst tight ends in the pass game in the league.