Joe Mixon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects Joe Mixon to notch 14.9 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has grinded out 61.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL when it comes to running backs (87th percentile).

Favors Under

The model projects the Bengals as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 34.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 119.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
While Joe Mixon has accounted for 84.6% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, The leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller part of Cincinnati's rushing attack in this contest at 72.5%.
The Bengals offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.

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