Joe Mixon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 15.7 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has generated 66.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (92nd percentile).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends rank as the 4th-worst DE corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 10th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his team's run game this week (60.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (75.8% in games he has played).
Joe Mixon has been among the weakest running backs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 2.67 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 20th percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.