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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Joe Mixon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+115/-145).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

Joe Mixon has received 83.0% of his team's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.

Joe Mixon has run for 0.62 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (95th percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 7th-least run-heavy team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 39.8% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.80 seconds per play.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best DE corps in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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