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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -175 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

In this game, Joe Mixon is anticipated by the projections to finish in the 93rd percentile among RBs with 4.4 targets.

The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (89.3%) vs. running backs this year (89.3%).

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Arizona's collection of safeties has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 10th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are projected by the model to call just 61.2 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.

Joe Mixon's 8.9% Target Share this year shows a a remarkable decrease in his passing offense workload over last year's 14.0% rate.

The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

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