Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 26, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-159/+123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -670 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to notch 5.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has been among the best RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.
The Los Angeles Rams linebackers project as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Joe Mixon's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 86.0% to 74.8%.

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